BIASES IN DECISION MAKING

Willingness to gather facts which lead toward certain conclusions
and to disregard other facts which threaten them
Inability to apply the same decision criteria in similar situations
Failure to change (or changing slowly) one's own mind in
light of new information/evidence
The most recent events dominate those in the less recent
past, which are downgraded or ignored
Reliance upon specific events easily recalled from memory,
to the exclusion of other pertinent information
Predictions are unduly influenced by initial information
which is given more weight in the forecasting process
Belief that patterns are evident and/or two variables are
causally related when they are not
People tend to see problems in terms of their own background
and experience
Persistent increases [in some phenomenon] might be due to
random reasons which, if true, would [raise] the chance of a
[subsequent] decrease. Alternatively, persistent decreases
might [raise] the chances of [subsequent] increases
Success is attributed to one's skills while failure to bad luck,
or someone else's error. This inhibits learning as it does not
allow recognition of one's mistakes
People's preferences for future outcomes affect their forecasts
of such outcomes
Excessive optimism, illusory correlation, and the need to
reduce anxiety result in underestimating future uncertainty